Data Analysis

Voting Metrics for a US House Member

The recent Speaker of the House elections turned the nation’s focus to the US House. How could a representative’s voting be tracked monthly with a few metrics?

How about two metrics?

  • Percent Conservative (vote the same as Lauren Boebert), and
  • Percent Liberal (vote the same as AOC)

Here is a video taking these metrics from concept to initial numbers for my US House Rep.

Hint: It works well for Yes/No votes. I found a blind spot – when Rep. Boebert, AOC and my representative all vote differently. What are your thoughts’?

Life

Review of Portland Center Stage’s “Hair”

Note: I gave this review at Toastmasters this evening as a speech. I had fun writing it this morning, hope you enjoy it too!

“Hair” is exuberant, creative, lively, noisy mayhem. Many adjectives describe “Hair.” It is almost non-stop singing. A rock opera. Even after all these years – it still stands out.

Starting on Broadway in 1967  – the musical reflects both the utter joy and bewilderment of being 17 to 20 years old. “Hair” has almost no plot; just like a 17-year-old has little internal guidance. Wildly shocking in its day – for many reasons and on many levels. Now, it is almost an historical piece about the Baby Boomer hippies when they were in their late teens.

Though I would like to skip all of that – to talk more personally about the play. I like “Hair” – because I have lived my life in the shadow of the people the musical depicts: baby boomer hippies.

I have always been just behind them – by about 10 years. When “Hair” was big, I was in first grade.

I became personally aware of hippies in Junior High and High School. There were two groups of teachers: the been-there-forever older teachers living “in their box” and the then late 20’s hippies, who moved out of the city and into the country. Some were bra-less. Most were largely without boundaries.       

Across my life, I have responded to situations in a similar manner as my two groups of school teachers: Either I have clearly been “in the box” or clearly “out of the box” in my behavior. Which has always made sense to me. Though not always to the people around me.

As the years went by – when I was in my early 20’s, just out of college. These baby boomers were 30-somethings and making waves at the company where we all worked. They were now a super competitive and noisy group. I really had to jump to keep up.

So “Hair” gives me a glimpse into their lives when I was too young to know them. It is a wonderful glimpse – both – of the late 60’s – and the weird time we all went through between leaving school and entering adulthood regardless of what year the calendar said it was.  

The Vietnam War and the military draft into the service loomed large over the kids in “Hair.” I missed that too. The draft was over by the time I was a high school senior. An older cousin went to theology college to miss the draft and would have become an illegal immigrant to Canada had he been drafted. In time the Vietnam War ended. Though the returning vets – near all were broken in various ways – were my friend’s older siblings, cousins, or uncles. Families around me had triangle-shaped wooden boxes with a US flag inside and the attendant black hole around it. Vietnam vets were my coworkers and neighbors across the ‘80s and ‘90s. We worked to give them a lot of space and support.

The theater group did update the production to 2023 with mixed results. The cast’s sexual expression has been updated with most of them being bi and/or trans. One of the lead roles is individually involved with a man and a woman. These changes largely worked. One cast member was single and pregnant. 

I recall in seventh grade there was a wonderful student teacher, who became pregnant. I do not recall if she was married or single at the time. Two or three days after telling us she was pregnant – she was fired and we never saw her again. Being pregnant and working was not allowed then. The next year, a different teacher became pregnant and we became very concerned about her. She did work through her pregnancy and returned afterward. Times were thankfully slowly changing.  

Though “Hair” itself is firmly based “in the moment” – of kids lounging in the park, chatting, getting stoned with the wonderment and newness of everything. Before they understood the meaning of the phrase, “personal potential.” The play expresses this wonderfully with the music: twenty songs, each with a solo are all sung by different cast members – getting their time to share their voice and story. Instead of the usual musical where two or three leads perform most of the songs.  

So, I suggest you purchase a ticket to “Hair” and go back in time to when you were 18 or 19 and spend a couple of hours reliving the utter joy and bewilderment of those days.

Thank you!

Data Analysis

Sun City Real Estate Sales – January ’23 Update

Data source: pshomes.com – a great collection of homes, for sale and sold, by development in the Coachella Valley

Sun City is one of the largest 55+ communities in the US, located east of Palm Springs with 5,000 condos.

Here’s an update on Sun City sales – with January ’23 sales added

  • What did January ’23 sales look like? (chart 1)
    • Average sold price: $613K
      • Steady at last ~14 month average
      • Number sold: 18
      • Average days on market: 53
      • Average sold price: 3% below list price
    • So average price went back to ‘normal’ even with sales slowing down
  • Let’s limit (normalize) the sales data to the most numerous home size: 2 bed/2 bath condos
  • The data set gives much more stable data over time (
    • Again, with just January ’23 sales
    • Average sold price: $503K
      • Steady at last ~14 month average
      • Number sold: 8
      • Average days on market: 50
  • Looking forward: Number of months to sell inventory
    • 2/15/23 : 5.3 months
      • (96 total condos for sale/18 condos sold in Jan ’23)
    • 1/26/22 : 4.5 months
      • (85 total condos for sale/19 condos sold in Dec ’22)
Data Analysis, Life

US Housing Market – Another Way to Look at Rising Interest Rates

Someone made the comment that home prices have gone down with the increase in mortgage interest rates: people just haven’t realized it.

How does one put numbers towards this statement?

Mortgage interest rates have increased):

  • Around 3.5% for 11 years (mid 2012-year end 2022)
  • Around 6.5% since start of 2022

FRED Chart source:

Note: Portland, Oregon Median House Value: $555K in March, 2021

Standard way to present increasing mortgage interest rates:

  • A $500K home, 30-year mortgage, 100% down (second chart)
    • at 3.5% monthly payment = $2,245
    • at 6.5% monthly payment = $3,327
  • Net: Buyer needs to find more money for monthly payment

Closer to the truth: a home buyer has talked to a banker prior to purchase and has a maximum monthly payment in hand.

How has the home purchase amount changed with a set monthly payment?

A $2,200 monthly payment, a buyer can purchase:

  • With 3.5% interest, purchases a $500K home
  • With 6.5% interest, purchases a $355K home

So this 3.0 point rise in mortgage interest rates, lowers the home value that can be purchased by 29% with all other variables around a home purchases staying fixed. This is the point the commentator made regarding lowering home values. Most people cannot simply increase their monthly payment to purchase a home.

Data Analysis

Sun City Real Estate Sales – Last Two Years

Let’s look at Sun City – one of the largest 55+ communities in the US, located east of Palm Springs with 5,000 condos.

  • NET:
    • Prices increased across 2021 by 32%
      • 1QTR21 average $439K
      • 4QTR21 average $581K
    • Then held steady across 2022 at about $600K
      • Perhaps average getting soft, Nov-Dec ’22
  • Effects from Fed raising interest rates?
    • Perhaps a slow developing change
    • Year prior to July 1, ’22 compared to July – Dec ’22
      • Condos sold/month down 50%
        • 31 homes to 22 homes
      • Average days on Market up 50%
        • 28 days to 45 days
    • Prices largely held steady until Nov/Dec ’22
  • How do sales in this community differ from the norm?
    • 55+ Community, strong HOA
    • People purchasing not dependent on a job
    • Likely based on ability to sell prior home
    • Likely to pay cash rather than mortgage
    • Historically, more sales in snowbird season (winter) than in summer
Learning

Helping Me Blog: Hay House’s Book Writing Challenge

Reid Tracy and Kelly Notaras are hosting this free 4-day challenge this week. I am hoping it will help me organize my thoughts and writings around my blog. Perhaps you will be able to attend too.

Hay House is providing support: “Our Aspiring Author’s Tool Kit”:

Learning

Twilio Segment Webinar, “Navigating a Cookieless World with Better Data” January 17, 2023

Their agenda:

  • Gain a better understanding of upcoming data trends
  • A view on the advertising landscape how best practices are shifting and why
  • What it means to harness first-party data in this new era

My thoughts: Great panel (Google, Meta, Snap and Deloitte Digital). Very candid answers. In April, 2021 Apple started making privacy changes, over 18 months later the main online platforms are still grappling with how to react. Still grappling with developing products to bring to market to help company’s with on-line marketing and advertising on their platforms. Twilio is figuring it out.

I was especially impressed with Michelle McGuire Christian, Deloitte Digital and Chris Plambeck, Snap Inc. contributions to the webinar.

Twilio Segment’s recorded webinar

Learning, Life

Expectations for 2023

Why not put out my guesses along with the Conventional Wisdom (CW) for various topics. Each topic will have a blog post with detailed information and source links.

China – Slow to recover after reopening with mass COVID infections. Recovery will take into 3rd and 4th Quarter.

  • Unlocked society after 3 years in late December ’22
    • No country opened faster and with so little planning
  • CW: Recover quickly in three months – at end of 1st quarter
    • I disagree, think recovery will take longer
    • Recovery from the trauma will take more time

US Federal Government Leadership –

  • CW: Gridlock is the usual, just moved to US House: I agree
  • Third year of presidency is usually flat economically

US Stock and Bond Markets –

  • Stocks largely unpredictable – movement based on crowd psychology
    • Though based on numeric market fundamentals
    • I need to explore data modeling of
      • Crowd psychology and market fundamentals
  • Best guess: -5% to -10% return for year
  • CW: Stock Market is largely unpredictable

US Federal Bank – will move interest rates up more, US will have a slight recession around 3rd quarter

  • CW: Rich will have a recession, not affect working and middle class as much
    • Wall Street (stocks and bonds) more affected
  • Myself: Inflation is taking a bite out of everyone
  • Recession Shape
    • I need to explore interactions between Baby Boomers, Gen X & Z
      • Affecting recession and US real estate values
  • Shortage of Workers
    • Why? What is the effect of the mass inflow of immigrants?
      • I need to explore US census & employment data
        • Think answer is in Baby Boomers retiring with Gen X & Z getting older

Technology –

  • ChatGPT – CW: The Next Big Thing? Or will we wait?
    • How will it be used? Unknown, TBD
    • I need to learn
  • Cookie-less online advertising and marketing still being developed
    • CW: Which company/app will dominate? Google, Meta et al addressing
    • I need to learn
  • US 5G Service – CW: Did not turn out to be The Next Big Thing
    • More stable and widely available 4G level speeds
    • My observation: More short video streaming instead of text on news sites
  • US Federal Gov. funding for chip manufacturers
    • CW: National security issue: shoring up existing industry
  • What about all the satellites launched last year?
    • My curiosity – haven’t heard recent update
  • What about iLot mentioned in press 2017-2019
    • My curiosity – haven’t heard recent update

European Union – All points are CW: Surprisingly resilient as standard of living drops

  • Jump in energy costs for all EU countries, w/Ukraine war
    • Surprisingly well received by citizens
    • Helped with fast reactions by EU governments
  • Other choice being: more steps towards war w/Russia

Interesting ‘Winners’ of the Ukraine war – All points are CW

  • India and China are purchasing the inexpensive ($60US/barrel) Russian oil exports
    • So their economies are getting a boost
    • Where EU economies are getting depressed
  • Globalization is slowing down –
    • Countries with more complete economies better positioned

That’s about it for my observations and a few predictions.