Financial / Economic

Thousands of Amateur Gamblers are Beating Wall Street Ph.D.s

Posted on by Josh Welch

NYT article by Lydia DePhillis, February 11, 2026

This article really caught my eye as neat form of crowdsourcing. As Ms. DePhillis wrote, “Over the five years that Kalshi has existed, its thousands of gamblers have proved as accurate on average at predicting certain economic indicators as the highly trained forecasters, a working paper published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found. The crowd is also pretty good at predicting interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, and even better than the professionals at predicting the rate of inflation.”

Why? Perhaps as the article states: Theis Jensen, a Yale professor … thinks the comparatively good performance by thousands of amateurs can be chalked up to incentives. Professional analysts may have conflicts of interest, such as their firm’s trading commissions, which might rise in response to rosier forecasts. Analysts may also avoid publishing earnings forecasts that are out of the norm, which can lead to more embarrassment than sticking with the crowd.

“The nice thing about prediction markets is that you have to put your money where your mouth is,” Mr. Jensen said, “and so that highly incentivizes you to state your true beliefs.”

Cooking/Food

Easy Homemade Dog Treats

Posted on by Josh Welch

After looking around for some treats for Charlie, I realized the plastic-like store bought treats were not good to feed him daily. Here’s a healthy recipe we both like from k9instinct.com:

1 cup coconut or rice flour, 1 cup peanut butter and 4 eggs

Mix, roll, cut into shapes (suggest round balls), Bake at 350 for 15-20 minutes

Data Analysis

2024 Economic Data Highlights from YCharts

Posted on by Josh Welch

I describe YCharts as a massive data lake with a subscription-based interface.

YCharts describes itself, “A powerful, flexible, and time-saving platform empowering growth for both your clients & your business.”

They sent me their 2024 Economic Data deck with the message, “Use these visuals about important investing concepts in your own presentations; share with clients, prospects, colleagues, or followers online!” So here are just a few of the charts contained in it. Here is their .pdf and PowerPoint version.

TTM Index Performance, 2024 – Stock investments did really well.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – From across the decades – Stocks are a bit over valued. I would say about 24-26 would be ‘normal’

Inflation and CPI – The post-pandemic inflation was the first run up in several decades.

Employment – The post pandemic boom time for jobs slowed back to ‘normal’, though the US Labor Force Participation Rate never recovered: Generally assumed to be Baby Boomers retiring and people with Long Covid.

GDP & Public Debt – Two sets of Charts: 1) The US has a tremendous amount of Debt, and 2) Coming out of the 2008-2010 Great Recession moved it toward 100% of US Annual GDP. Coming out of the Pandemic moved it to 120% of US Annual GDP.

Consumers Savings and Credit – Two sets of charts, 1) US Consumers saved money during the Pandemic shutdown, then promptly spent it after the world opened back up. 2) Sales YoY after inflation picked up have been soft and Consumer Sentiment dropped as if there was a recession.

Data Analysis, Life

Atlanta FED’s “GDPNow”: A Downward Change in Economic Projections

Posted on by Josh Welch

Just saw this crazy economic projection on Marc Cuban’s BlueSky, so I found it’s source: Atlanta FED’s GDPNow economic projection. It’s real. The chart below is the current Atlanta FED’s GDP Now economic projection – they have doubled down in the meantime.

Either the gurus at the Federal Reserve Bank are off, or the market is being slow to realize the economy is changing.

Stay tuned!

Cooking/Food, Life

Christmas Recipes 2024

Posted on by Josh Welch

Here are some recipes I liked and want to keep track of. Perhaps you’ll like them too!

Sticky Cranberry Gingerbread – The sum is better than its parts, by Melissa Clark/NYT Cooking

4-Ingredient Baileys Fudge – Yummy and easy – by Maplewood Road

Saltine Cracker Toffee – Amazingly easy and doesn’t stick to your teeth – by allrecipes.com

Dario’s Olive Oil Cake – with oranges, pine nuts and rosemary – by Food52.com

Data Analysis

Voting Metrics for a US House Member

Posted on by Josh Welch

The recent Speaker of the House elections turned the nation’s focus to the US House. How could a representative’s voting be tracked monthly with a few metrics?

How about two metrics?

  • Percent Conservative (vote the same as Lauren Boebert), and
  • Percent Liberal (vote the same as AOC)

Here is a video taking these metrics from concept to initial numbers for my US House Rep.

Hint: It works well for Yes/No votes. I found a blind spot – when Rep. Boebert, AOC and my representative all vote differently. What are your thoughts’?