The air quality around Portland with numerous nearby fires was between Very Unhealthy and Hazardous using the US EPA AQI scale.
Which was quickly confirmed by stepping outside.
Air Quality Index (AQI): Portland, Oregon
Author: Josh Welch
Suggestions for Online Shopping UI Improvements
I recently used Al’s Garden Center‘s online shopping site. I like it! While having three ideas for improving it.
- Change the landing page directly to the Products page
- Change the links to the supporting pages by updating them to the brand format (purple background/white writing)
- Update the Products page to include a left navigation bar, so different types of products are easily found and separated from each other.
As Time Goes By: Coronavirus
Here is my third presentation in the coronavirus series, where I focus on and summarize six aspects of the situation:
- Coronavirus case load in Italy, US, New York state and Oregon
- Perspective of Public Health
- Viewpoint of the general public
- Collapse of Business
- Review of President Trump’s strengths
- Leadership in the US
Leading to my conclusion:
- The next 6-12 months is unpredictable. The virus remains constantly contagious. While people’s behavior stopped the initial peak. Currently the variables of peoples’ behavior of mask wearing and social distancing, with conflicting messages from American leadership is simply unpredictable.
Made a Website: CasaPiellas
A friend mentioned a trip and wanting to talk others into going on it. My response: you need a website! I quickly had a new project on my do-list.
Thought I’d share it: casapiellas.wordpress.com. Getting various people’s feedback as it was build was good project management practice along with a short and sweet marketing plan.
My “Coronavirus Overview”
We see many great articles about specific topics about the coronavirus situation. I was having trouble fitting all the details together to form an overview of the situation I could understand. So I researched, and then put together this video.
- Combining the initial “keep the peak down” chart
- John Hopkins University’s great work on tracking case information
- US/Other countries & Oregon/Other states
- Timelines over the next year
- Some components of the situation
Hopefully, you will find the video helpful. I had a lot of fun making it!
Coronavirus: Update to 3/26 Projections
In late March there was a lot of talk about will we open the country on Easter? How many people will have the virus then?
I researched and estimated how many people in Oregon would test positive for coronavirus and how many would die by Easter. Healthcare stats are a bit different than modeling future sales and capacity planning! (See my blog on 3/26 for the initial information.) As Easter was yesterday, I revisited my projections against actual.
NET:
- Number of cases: I over-estimated (1,371 actual vs 2,862) As the growth rate dropped from around 15% per day to 4-8% for the last week. I had a constant 15% growth rate. Everyone stayed home!
- Number of deaths: I was very close (52 actual vs 51) As my predicted growth rate matched actual until the last week. To be blunt, it takes awhile for one to die. So my model expected most people diagnosed in the last week to still be alive.
One of My Creative Outlets …
… is making memes. It’s fun to see them on social media. I find it even better to bring to fruition the ideas that spring up in my mind. Here are several recent ones.
Hint: Easy to do in PowerPoint, Canva.com, and Photoshop.
Unemployment Rate? With 6.648M More: Answer: ~9.6%
As was reported this morning by CNN – another 6.648M Americans are newly unemployed. My mind quickly went to, “What is the updated unemployment percentage?” As the newscast did not mention this number.
- The federal government doesn’t calculate it weekly, just monthly
- So I approximated it at 9.6%
Assumptions in the approximation:
- No one unemployed the prior week found a job
- Without seasonally adjusted numbers calculations
- Sources:
- https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf (yellow highlighted number)
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm (blue highlighted numbers)
AEI: Coronavirus Response, A Road Map to Reopening
As I tried to extend my coronavirus understanding and modeling – I realized a key component to future modeling was missing!
- The expected future behavior to base the model on
- Yes, we’re that far out of the box on this topic
Thankfully, there are many people working on this topic including the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) released “Coronavirus Response; A Road Map to Reopening” on 3/28/2020. People who know way more than myself discuss their ideas in a serious way.
Four phase plan – which will take considerable time with focus on saving the most lives.
Phase I: Slow the Spread – what we are doing, with a lot more testing
Phase II: State-by-State Reopening – with massive testing and contact tracing
Phase III: Establish Immune Protection and Lift Physical Distancing
Phase IV: Rebuild Our Readiness for the Next Pandemic
Question: With 3.283M Newly Unemployed, What is the Unemployment Rate? Answer: 5.5% Up From 3.5%
In the news stories yesterday – we were all shocked at the 3.283M Americans newly unemployed. My mind quickly went to, “What is the updated unemployment percentage?” As the newscasts did not mention this number.
The federal government doesn’t calculate it weekly, just monthly.
So I approximated it at 5.5%.
Assumptions in the approximation:
- No one unemployed the prior week found a job
- Without seasonally adjusted numbers calculations
Sources:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf (yellow highlighted number)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm (blue highlighted numbers)
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