Why not put out my guesses along with the Conventional Wisdom (CW) for various topics. Each topic will have a blog post with detailed information and source links.

China – Slow to recover after reopening with mass COVID infections. Recovery will take into 3rd and 4th Quarter.

• Unlocked society after 3 years in late December ’22
  • No country opened faster and with so little planning

• CW: Recover quickly in three months – at end of 1st quarter
  • I disagree, think recovery will take longer
  • Recovery from the trauma will take more time

US Federal Government Leadership –

• CW: Gridlock is the usual, just moved to US House: I agree
• Third year of presidency is usually flat economically

US Stock and Bond Markets –

• Stocks largely unpredictable – movement based on crowd psychology
  • Though based on numeric market fundamentals
  • I need to explore data modeling of
    • Crowd psychology and market fundamentals
• Best guess: -5% to -10% return for year
• CW: Stock Market is largely unpredictable

US Federal Bank – will move interest rates up more, US will have a slight recession around 3rd quarter

• CW: Rich will have a recession, not affect working and middle class as much
  • Wall Street (stocks and bonds) more affected
• Myself: Inflation is taking a bite out of everyone
• Recession Shape
  • I need to explore interactions between Baby Boomers, Gen X & Z
    • Affecting recession and US real estate values
• Shortage of Workers
  • Why? What is the effect of the mass inflow of immigrants?
    • I need to explore US census & employment data
      • Think answer is in Baby Boomers retiring with Gen X & Z getting older

Technology –

• ChatGPT – CW: The Next Big Thing? Or will we wait?
  • How will it be used? Unknown, TBD
  • I need to learn
• Cookie-less online advertising and marketing still being developed
  • CW: Which company/app will dominate? Google, Meta et al addressing
  • I need to learn
• US 5G Service – CW: Did not turn out to be The Next Big Thing
  • More stable and widely available 4G level speeds
  • My observation: More short video streaming instead of text on news sites
• US Federal Gov. funding for chip manufacturers
  • CW: National security issue: shoring up existing industry
• What about all the satellites launched last year?
  • My curiosity – haven’t heard recent update
• What about iLot mentioned in press 2017-2019
  • My curiosity – haven’t heard recent update

European Union – All points are CW: Surprisingly resilient as standard of living drops

• Jump in energy costs for all EU countries, w/Ukraine war
  • Surprisingly well received by citizens
  • Helped with fast reactions by EU governments
• Other choice being: more steps towards war w/Russia

Interesting ‘Winners’ of the Ukraine war – All points are CW

• India and China are purchasing the inexpensive ($60US/barrel) Russian oil exports
  • So their economies are getting a boost
  • Where EU economies are getting depressed
• Globalization is slowing down –
  • Countries with more complete economies better positioned

That’s about it for my observations and a few predictions.