In late March there was a lot of talk about will we open the country on Easter? How many people will have the virus then?

I researched and estimated how many people in Oregon would test positive for coronavirus and  how many would die by Easter. Healthcare stats are a bit different than modeling future sales and capacity planning! (See my blog on 3/26 for the initial information.) As Easter was yesterday, I revisited my projections against actual.

NET:

• Number of cases: I over-estimated (1,371 actual vs 2,862) As the growth rate dropped from around 15% per day to 4-8% for the last week. I had a constant 15% growth rate.  Everyone stayed home!
• Number of deaths: I was very close (52 actual vs 51) As my predicted growth rate matched actual until the last week. To be blunt, it takes awhile for one to die. So my model expected most people diagnosed in the last week to still be alive.